The Mushroom Cometh!

Some will say we are heading full speed into disaster, and you know something, they could be right! There are two global situations, which if allowed to develop any further, will certainly bring us all to the brink, and neither are palatable. I write of course about the nuclear ambitions of North Korea and Iran.

North Korea is ahead in the game because they have already tested two bombs, and have declared their intention to make fissionable material for more.

As for Iran, their President denies Iran's nuclear ambitions as being anything more than the peaceful generation of electricity. No-one in their right mind is willing to believe this statement, but it does what the Iranians want it to do; it buys them time.

Today, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Authority (IAEA), Mohamed ElBaradei has stated publicly he is convinced Iran wishes to have nuclear weapons technology to increase its standing in the Middle East and the World. He went on to say he believed they are not directly after 'a bomb', but at a minimum, the technology necessary to make one if they so desire.

He is quoted as saying; "It wants to send a message to its neighbours, it wants to send a message to the rest of the world: Yes, don't mess with us, we can have nuclear weapons if we want it".

So right now we have essentially two rogue states, one with, and one striving to get, nuclear weapon technology. It is abundantly clear that the whole world is extremely unhappy at the prospect of these two becoming nuclear powers, especially the Middle East Arab States, Japan, South Korea, the USA, and Europe.

While President Obama is clearly at a loss at what to do next, and who can blame him, both countries are getting steadily closer to their goal.

Naturally, The USA does not wish to be seen as the aggressor in either case, but I believe Obama knows he cannot wait until they have achieved their aim and developed not only the bomb, but the means to deliver it.

The threats delivered almost daily by Pyongyang indicate their willingness to go to war, or so it seems, but at the same time, Obama cannot be seen to be the architect of a new Korean Peninsular war. Most countries would agree with a 'final solution' to the North Korean bomb threat, but as hypocritical as they are, they would roundly condemn both Obama and the USA for any unilateral action it took to ensure North Korea's bomb ambitions were stopped cold.

With Iran the situation is somewhat more complex, mainly because Israel is in the mix! There is no doubt in anyone's mind that Israel will not stand idly by while Iran builds a nuclear bomb. President Obama has made it very clear to the Israeli's however that unilateral action against Iran's bomb making capabilities is, in his view, a non-starter.

However, it is easy to understand why nerves are somewhat frayed in Tel Aviv. Iran already has sufficient missile technology to plant a nuclear bomb on Israel, all they need is the payload. If they get that I am sure there will be no stopping them, such is the feeling of hatred towards Israel in Iranian government circles. Indeed, Ahmadinejad has already stated publicly that he wishes to see "Israel wiped off the map".

I think Mr. ElBaradei is somewhat naive if he thinks Iran will stop at having the necessary technology for a nuclear weapon and not actually produce one. Of course they will! If I give a child an ice cream and tell him/her to hold it and not taste it, would they?

Both North Korea and Iran were declared 'State sponsors of terrorism' by Bush and he may well have been right, so this opens up another avenue of worry for the international community. If both these States get the technology they are seeking, how do we know they will not sell that knowledge to other countries?

It was a milestone in human history when we seemed to go back from the brink of nuclear annihilation with the famous S.T.A.R.T Agreement between Russia and the USA, and the signing of the Non-Nuclear Proliferation Pact by the UN members. Now that North Korea has backed out of the latter treaty, and Iran denies its ambitions, the prospect of a nuclear holocaust may seem just that little bit closer again.

There are without doubt, many uncertainties in what the future holds for mankind, but one thing is certain, North Korea and Iran cannot be allowed to have nuclear weapons.

At some time in the reasonably near future, action will have to be taken to ensure that the dreams of domination by these two States is not allowed a fruitful outcome. At some time, before they get the technology they seek, someone is going to have to blow the hell out of the nuclear reactors and plants used in the bomb making process.

Already North Korea is starting to produce more weapons grade material from their stock of spent reactor fuel rods. Does the world have to wait until they have successfully produced another six or seven bombs before we take action? If we do, the likelihood of a nuclear response from North Korea will magnify a hundred fold.

Time is rapidly running out for any restraining action by the World, and it is clear that all the signatories of the UN Charter must come together and authorise whatever action is necessary, including force, to bring North Korea in line. An end must come to the prevarication of countries like Russia and China who seem to enjoy opposing UN Resolutions of this nature.

It is possible that if all the countries take a strong enough line with North Korea, Iran will see its position as hopeless and come into line too. Whichever way it goes, I believe we are heading for a crisis of huge proportions which only a united effort can stop. Heaven help us all.

May all your mushrooms be the eating kind.

Roy.

North Korea - An Analysis

For many months the North Korean leadership have been playing a game of brinkmanship with the international community and the UN. Why, what is their goal?

Using their emerging nuclear capability as a tool of intimidation, they have taken on the world with threats of expanding their weapons capability and test firing missiles. Naturally, there is a certain nervousness among the surrounding countries, South Korea, Japan and China, at the prospect of North Korea achieving a nuclear weapon and the means to deliver it. The United States feels especially uncomfortable with the prospect of a nuclear armed North Korea, considering its many interests in the Far East.

This scenario may be some way off, but the 'writing is on the wall'. In particular the firing of a long-range missile last month, thinly disguised as 'a satellite launch into space', caused much controversy and initiated an emergency meeting of the Security Council at the UN. After North Korea's weapons test last Monday a further meeting was called.

It must be said that the UN, for all its supposed power is, and always has been, impotent in this and most other crisis's the world over. It has never been possible for all nations, and in particular the permanent members of the Security Council, to agree on anything. So far, North Korea has received little more than punitive sanctions, for this read - a 'slap on the wrist', from the Security Council for its provocative actions.

In the past, it was always China and Russia who were hesitant to take any positive and meaningful action against the North Koreans for fear, they say, of making the situation worse. I believe events have proven them wrong. It would seem by its actions of late, North Korea had every intention of following this path regardless of any pressure brought to bear by the UN Security Council, or anyone else for that matter.

Traditionally, America has been the most hawkish when dealing with North Korea, as it sees a threat to its Far Eastern bases should they ever get a viable nuclear capability. But despite acting in its own interests, I believe it is also acting in the interests of the whole world, because no-one wants Kim Jong-il and his cronies to attain the status of a nuclear power.

Speculation is rife about the possibilities of nuclear weapon technology in the hands of such a dictatorial and oppressive regime as that in Pyongyang. It is not surprising they wish to hold on to the absolute power they have, and anyone, or anything that can upset that balance could become a target.

Should they see, for example the USA or Europe as a serious threat to their power base, they have the means to strike without direct involvement. One quick phone call to Bin Laden with the offer of a nuclear weapon and bingo, bye bye New York, London, Berlin or where-ever. I am sure Bin Laden and his pals would love to get hold of just such a device and use it against 'the infidels'. Hopefully this is not likely to happen, but however far-fetched it may seem, it remains a nightmare that will not go away. It does make it abundantly clear that North Korea must be stopped before such a scenario becomes a possibility.

Yet another cause for concern is Pyongyang selling their nuclear technology to other countries in an effort to acquire much needed funds. It is well documented that they have sold missile technology to Syria, Egypt and other middle-eastern countries for this purpose. Should they begin selling nuclear weapons technology to these countries the whole balance of power in the Middle East will change forever, and not for the better. The world does not need a new arms race.

Experts have speculated that the main reason North Korea is following this antagonistic path, is to secure the succession for Kim Jung-il's chosen son Kim Jong-un, his youngest. He is 25 years old, likes to drink and party as his father did, and has been groomed to succeed him. But outside of that little is known about him. Many experts believe he would become nothing more than a figurehead, and the power would remain in the hands of older, more experienced leaders.

Other experts are of the opinion, that this whole charade is nothing more than political blackmail, intended to get big rewards from the international community for ceasing their activities. To me that however does not hold water, because Pyongyang cannot expect to gain any more than it would have received under the six-nation talks that stalled some months ago.

Whichever way it goes, many Far Eastern countries are starting to get nervous, South Korea and Japan in particular. From reports it would seem even the Chinese are starting to lose patience with their neighbour. This could at last lead to a real consensus of opinion on action by the UN Security Council. Only time will tell, but in the meantime, the world waits with bated breath to find out what other surprises North Korea has in store.

Much has been said about South Korea becoming a full member of the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) teams operating around Korea, a decision that prompted their northern neighbour to suspend the armistice that has been in place since the end of the Korean War in 1953.

The teams initial purpose, was to intercept and inspect shipping suspected of carrying nuclear material or technology, to help prevent their spread to other nations. The various naval ships making up the force have to date however confined themselves to exercises alone.

The North Korean Government released a statement this week, saying that if any of their ships were stopped they would consider it an act of war. Tough words, and you can be sure it would be South Korea that felt any repercussions, although it is extremely doubtful that Kim Jung-il would be rash enough to risk a full scale war with the South, and America. North Korea starting a second war would bring the UN countries together to provide men and materials for the conflict just as they did in 1950. There is no hope for them with that course of action. The statement has however been sufficient for most Chinese fishermen to vacate the waters around North Korea, a measure that could be spontaneous, or at the behest of the Chinese government.

It may be just the usual political posturing that is always present with the Pyongyang gang, hopefully they do not have a more sinister purpose.

Whichever way you look at it, the situation is extremely complicated, and no-one has any real clue what is behind all this brinkmanship by the 'Dear Leader' and his cronies. The one thing we can be sure of, there is nothing innocent about it.

It is time for the UN to really show its muscle with sanctions that will bite hard at the Government and leaders of North Korea, and put them on notice the world does not want another nuclear capable nation, especially them.

The freezing of bank accounts, belonging to companies known to be providing the north's regime with weaponry, are among plans mentioned in the press as measures that may be employed against the Pyongyang hierarchy, but we shall see what the Security Council comes up with. Hopefully the measures will be harsh enough to make Kim Jung-il back off.

As Bob Dylan once sang: "The times they are a-changin'" - Hopefully, not for the worse.

Roy.