Iran - What Next?

It would seem the turmoil surrounding Iran's disputed election is not over, as yet another prominent figure has declared his dissatisfaction at the result. The hard liners are still holding fast to the win of Ahmadinajad, and even though they have tried to stifle opposition to the vote, it keeps resurfacing.

Last Sunday another former President, Mohammad Khatami, who is closely allied with the Association of Combatant Clerics (ACC), has added his voice to the call for reform, and even went so far as to suggest a referendum to end the dispute.

There is without doubt a very strong movement for reform in Iran, with many people wanting an end to the country's isolation. However, the 'ruling faction', under Ahmadinajad seems intent on projecting Iran as a nuclear power, and, more importantly, the dominant nation in the Middle East. Despite its constant denials, no-one on the planet believes that Iran is not pursuing nuclear weapons.

While Ahmadinajad is the public face of Iranian Politics, it is well known that the real power lies 'behind the throne' so to speak. The secretive power mongers of Iran are really various groups of clerics, for example, The Guardian Council, and in particular the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamanie who succeeded Ayatollah Khomeini.

The power struggle has been brewing for some time as a new generation of Iranians start to make their voices heard, and during the last elections they made it plain they want a change from the old ways. So now we have a struggle for control by those allied with the Guardian Council and the Supreme Leader, and the Reformists who would lead Iran down a more conciliatory path with the west.

Among these is ex-president Rafsanjani who voiced his dissatisfaction with the vote hours after Ahmadinajad declared himself the winner. Rafsanjani has now been joined by other powerful voices in Iran such as Khatami, another ex-president.

Where this goes from here is anybodies guess, but one thing is sure, Ahmadinajad will not relinquish the reins of power without a fight, at least so long as he has the backing of Khamanie.

It would seem that the real leaders of Iran are in for a long period of deep thought as to where the country should go from here. I am sure they will look fondly at the prospect of Iran being a nuclear nation with all the prestige that can bring, and therefore becoming the 'top dog' in the Middle East, and with it the chance to force the Islamic Revolution onto their western leaning neighbours.

On the other hand, the leaders know they cannot go against the will of the people for too long. As history has repeatedly shown, in a situation like this it is only a matter of time before they are cast down.

May justice and truth prevail.

Roy.

The Mushroom Cometh!

Some will say we are heading full speed into disaster, and you know something, they could be right! There are two global situations, which if allowed to develop any further, will certainly bring us all to the brink, and neither are palatable. I write of course about the nuclear ambitions of North Korea and Iran.

North Korea is ahead in the game because they have already tested two bombs, and have declared their intention to make fissionable material for more.

As for Iran, their President denies Iran's nuclear ambitions as being anything more than the peaceful generation of electricity. No-one in their right mind is willing to believe this statement, but it does what the Iranians want it to do; it buys them time.

Today, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Authority (IAEA), Mohamed ElBaradei has stated publicly he is convinced Iran wishes to have nuclear weapons technology to increase its standing in the Middle East and the World. He went on to say he believed they are not directly after 'a bomb', but at a minimum, the technology necessary to make one if they so desire.

He is quoted as saying; "It wants to send a message to its neighbours, it wants to send a message to the rest of the world: Yes, don't mess with us, we can have nuclear weapons if we want it".

So right now we have essentially two rogue states, one with, and one striving to get, nuclear weapon technology. It is abundantly clear that the whole world is extremely unhappy at the prospect of these two becoming nuclear powers, especially the Middle East Arab States, Japan, South Korea, the USA, and Europe.

While President Obama is clearly at a loss at what to do next, and who can blame him, both countries are getting steadily closer to their goal.

Naturally, The USA does not wish to be seen as the aggressor in either case, but I believe Obama knows he cannot wait until they have achieved their aim and developed not only the bomb, but the means to deliver it.

The threats delivered almost daily by Pyongyang indicate their willingness to go to war, or so it seems, but at the same time, Obama cannot be seen to be the architect of a new Korean Peninsular war. Most countries would agree with a 'final solution' to the North Korean bomb threat, but as hypocritical as they are, they would roundly condemn both Obama and the USA for any unilateral action it took to ensure North Korea's bomb ambitions were stopped cold.

With Iran the situation is somewhat more complex, mainly because Israel is in the mix! There is no doubt in anyone's mind that Israel will not stand idly by while Iran builds a nuclear bomb. President Obama has made it very clear to the Israeli's however that unilateral action against Iran's bomb making capabilities is, in his view, a non-starter.

However, it is easy to understand why nerves are somewhat frayed in Tel Aviv. Iran already has sufficient missile technology to plant a nuclear bomb on Israel, all they need is the payload. If they get that I am sure there will be no stopping them, such is the feeling of hatred towards Israel in Iranian government circles. Indeed, Ahmadinejad has already stated publicly that he wishes to see "Israel wiped off the map".

I think Mr. ElBaradei is somewhat naive if he thinks Iran will stop at having the necessary technology for a nuclear weapon and not actually produce one. Of course they will! If I give a child an ice cream and tell him/her to hold it and not taste it, would they?

Both North Korea and Iran were declared 'State sponsors of terrorism' by Bush and he may well have been right, so this opens up another avenue of worry for the international community. If both these States get the technology they are seeking, how do we know they will not sell that knowledge to other countries?

It was a milestone in human history when we seemed to go back from the brink of nuclear annihilation with the famous S.T.A.R.T Agreement between Russia and the USA, and the signing of the Non-Nuclear Proliferation Pact by the UN members. Now that North Korea has backed out of the latter treaty, and Iran denies its ambitions, the prospect of a nuclear holocaust may seem just that little bit closer again.

There are without doubt, many uncertainties in what the future holds for mankind, but one thing is certain, North Korea and Iran cannot be allowed to have nuclear weapons.

At some time in the reasonably near future, action will have to be taken to ensure that the dreams of domination by these two States is not allowed a fruitful outcome. At some time, before they get the technology they seek, someone is going to have to blow the hell out of the nuclear reactors and plants used in the bomb making process.

Already North Korea is starting to produce more weapons grade material from their stock of spent reactor fuel rods. Does the world have to wait until they have successfully produced another six or seven bombs before we take action? If we do, the likelihood of a nuclear response from North Korea will magnify a hundred fold.

Time is rapidly running out for any restraining action by the World, and it is clear that all the signatories of the UN Charter must come together and authorise whatever action is necessary, including force, to bring North Korea in line. An end must come to the prevarication of countries like Russia and China who seem to enjoy opposing UN Resolutions of this nature.

It is possible that if all the countries take a strong enough line with North Korea, Iran will see its position as hopeless and come into line too. Whichever way it goes, I believe we are heading for a crisis of huge proportions which only a united effort can stop. Heaven help us all.

May all your mushrooms be the eating kind.

Roy.

United Nations - The Paper Tiger

For a whole week, the United Nations Security Council has been debating what to do about North Korea's latest missile test, carried out under the guise of a 'satellite' launch. The end result is that North Korea will be 'chastised' for 'breaking the rules'.

The five permanent members, plus Japan, have haggled for an entire week just to produce a memorandum that will be laughed at by North Korea. What do we pay these people for? It's too ridiculous for words!("Hold out your hand Kim Jung Il. I am going to rap you on the knuckles with this piece of paper. But don't worry, I'll do it softly so you won't feel a thing!".)

I have always maintained the U.N. is nothing more than a 'Paper Tiger' with no real power over the nations of the world, and once again I feel vindicated.

Can anyone give me an example of even one single conflict that the U.N. has successfully managed to end, permanently?

Once again, Russia and China spoiled efforts to get a meaningful response to the missile launch to the extent that the word 'Missile' doesn't even appear in the document.

According to Susan E. Rice, the American Ambassador to the U.N. "The Council wishes to send a clear message to the North Koreans", but from what I can see, the only message they sent is 'We, the United Nations are a joke!'

It is bad enough that North Korea, Pakistan and India have nuclear weapons, and we all know that Iran is busy developing one under the guise of generating electricity.

Who will be next, Osama Bin Laden? Oops! Silly me! He doesn't need to produce his own, Iran will give him as many as he needs!

You can just imagine the conversation; "Good morning Osama. Peace be upon you Brother. How many do you need today?" Osama replies, "let me see, one for New York, one for Washington, one for Los Angeles, one for London and one for Berlin. That should do it for today, so total five please"

The world is indeed becoming a dangerous place to live, and when 'Rogue States' like North Korea and Iran start to develop nuclear weapons we are all in grave danger.

The sad thing is, the U.N. does have the power to stop these things happening, if only all the world's nations could agree. Unfortunately, they're all human, and the council is made up of politicians. Each country has it's own agenda, so the chances of them ever agreeing totally on anything is zero.

I think it was Isaac Assimov the science-fiction writer, who once said; "The only thing that will ever unite mankind is an invasion from outer space". Now that is a statement I fully agree with!

May Heaven help us all! In my view, all nations should agree to totally isolate any country that does not operate under the rules of proper human behavior.

If every nation agreed that such a country be cut off from the rest of the world, even by its neighbours, things would change rapidly. Sounds tough, but as an example, you can't fight a war without a steady supply of guns and ammo!

So where does today's decision leave us? Personally, I would say; "Up the creek without a paddle" because the current U.N. action is not going to impress Pyong Yang sufficiently to ensure a change in policy, and there is still the Iran question.

The United Nations seems just as powerless to change Iran's ambitions as it does North Korea's. Once these two countries get away with it who will be next?

May your radiation levels always be within limits.

Roy.